Could Iran Retaliate for Apparent Cyber Attack?

Security experts believe Tehran will be reeling from effects of Stuxnet computer worm for a while, but warn it may try to strike back and 'set in motion a deadly game that catalyses a nuclear program'

Iran has limited capacity to retaliate in kind to an apparent cyber attack that infected computers at its sole nuclear power plant, analysts say, but some worry it could seek to hit back by other means.

Security experts say they believe the release of the Stuxnet computer worm may have been a state-backed attack on Iran's nuclear program, most likely originating in the United States or Israel. But they say the truth may never be known.

Little information is available on how much damage, if any, Iran's nuclear and wider infrastructure has suffered from Stuxnet -- and Tehran will probably never share the full details. Officials said on Sunday the worm had hit staff computers at the Bushehr nuclear power plant but had not affected major systems there.

Some analysts believe Iran may be suffering wider sabotage aimed at slowing down its nuclear ambitions, and point to unexplained technical problems that have cut the number of working centrifuges in its uranium enrichment program.

In the short term, intelligence experts believe Tehran's priority will be trying to identify the source of the attack and examining how the worm was uploaded onto its systems. "The Iranian internal security and counterintelligence departments will need to nail down the culprits first, then work out how to turn the tables," said Fred Burton, a former US counterintelligence expert who is now vice president of political risk consultancy Stratfor.

Deniable response
But finding reliable evidence identifying which country or group was responsible might well prove impossible, increasing the probability of a more unofficial and deniable reaction.

Some analysts suggest Iran might like to retaliate with a cyber attack against Israel or the West – although there are question marks over its capability to do so.

"I don't think we can expect much in the way of retaliatory cyber attacks," said regional analyst Jessica Ashooh. "The Iranians simply don't have the technical capacity to do anything similar to properly protected systems – as evidenced by the very hard time they are having controlling and quarantining this attack."

Nevertheless, experts say Iran has made improving its cyber espionage capability a priority – and will probably aim to grow these resources further in the years to come.

The risk, some worry, is that Iran might be tempted to either intensify its own nuclear program or target the West's own nuclear installations in return.

"How prepared are we all for this and could this set in motion a deadly game that catalyses a nuclear program no one intended to engage in?" said Mark Fitt, managing director of N49 Intelligence, a firm that advises businesses in the Middle East.

In terms of a more conventional response, Iran could potentially act through proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, as well as insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"They can... use networks in Afghanistan and the Gulf to strike back using unconventional `stealth tactics' and asymmetric methods," said Fitt.

Whatever happens, analysts say the Stuxnet attack is an early insight into the form state conflict may take in the 21st century.

"It's by no means a one-off – I think we'll see much more of this," said Ian Bremmer, president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

By Reuters

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Tehran officials say Stuxnet computer virus infected 30,000 computers in Islamic Republic. Computer experts estimate worm originates from US, Israel, UK France or Germany

The Stuxnet computer worm has infected 30,000 computers in Iran but has failed to "cause serious damage," Iranian officials were quoted as saying on Sunday.

Some 30,000 IP addresses have been infected by Stuxnet so far in Iran, Mahmoud Liayi, head of the information technology council at the ministry of industries, was quoted as saying by the government-run paper Iran Daily.

Meanwhile, experts from the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran met this week to discuss how to remove the malicious computer code, or worm, the semi-official ISNA news agency reported.

The Islamic Republic confirmed over the weekend that computer systems in its power plants have been attacked by the sophisticated worm. It appears the Bushehr nuclear plant has also been infected.

Computer experts told the New York Times that the worm apparently originates from the United States, Israel, Britain, France or Germany.

Stuxnet is a Trojan-horse-type virus which, in theory, aims to cause physical damage as well as to shutg down computer systems. It is able to destroy gas pipes, disrupt the operations of nuclear power stations and cause industrial boilers to explode.

In the past, Stuxnet has shown up in a number of attacks - primarily in Pakistan, Indonesia, India and Russia.

Experts trying to eliminate virus
"The worm has not been able to penetrate or cause serious damage to government systems," telecommunications minister Reza Taqipour was quoted as saying by the Iran Daily.

"No serious damage to industrial systems (by Stuxnet) have been reported in the country," he added.

According to the paper, another telecommunications official, Saeed Mahdiyoun, said "teams of experts had begun to systematically eliminate the virus.

Stuxnet's abilities were first reported last June when a Belarusian company said it found a worm in one of its clients' systems in Iran. The virus was apparently inserted into a local power plant via a portable USB.

Germany's Siemens company, which manufactures control systems for power stations, later reported that no less that 14 of its clients have been infected.

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Israeli Weapons Systems Employed by the U.S.

Israel, a small nation surrounded by enemies many times her size, has long been known as a great innovator of cutting-edge military technology at affordable costs. Over the years, Israel's ingenuity has helped it win many battles and protect the lives of its soldiers. American interest in Israeli systems is growing as the U.S. military looks for ways to decrease its spending and minimize casualties during wartime. "Made in Israel" solutions are now meeting some of America's biggest needs.

ITALD (Improved Tactical Air Launched Decoy)
These jet powered, unpiloted decoys look and maneuver like an airplance. They are used to confuse enemy radar and draw the fire away from the piloted aircraft. Therefore, piloted aircraft can perform their missions under "safer" conditions because enemy radar attention is diverted and the enemy's air defense power is degraded. Earlier unpowered glider versions of the ITALD were used extensively during the initial stages of the Gulf War and in Bosnia.

Reactive Armor Tiles:
These tiles, developed by the IDF after the Yom Kippur War, protect its tanks and the soldiers operating them. These tiles overlay the tank's armor and have explosives embedded in them that explode outward when hit by missiles. The explosion destroys and repels the incoming missile before it penetrates the tank's main armor. During the 1982 Lebanon war, not a single Israeli tank equipped with these tiles was lost to enemy fire. The Army has received funds to outfit several hundred armored vehicles used in peacekeeping or urban combat operations with the protective tile sets.

Litening:
The Litening is a navigation and targeting device that enables aircraft to fly and target in bad weather and at night. The Litening transforms older planes into round-the-clock fighters. The Litening is equipped with two cameras. One uses heat sensors to identify targets at night and during bad weather. A second provides powerful images from long-range, and therefore safer, distances during the day. The U.S. Air National Guard, a quarter of whose fleet cannot fly at night, has purchased the Litening to enhance the capabilities of its F-16s. The Litening is also being purchased by the U.S. Marine Corps.

The Popeye/ HAVE NAP AGM-142
The HAVE NAP AGM-142, known as the Popeye, is used to destroy targets, such as concrete military bunkers, with exceptional precision from great distances. It is the only air-to-ground missile that can be retargeted after launch. The United States uses the Popeye on B-52 bombers. A small number of these aircraft, armed with the Popeye, were deployed to Europe for use in Kosovo. The Popeye's unique capabilities are especially useful for the types of pinpoint strikes seen in Operation Allied Force.

UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles)
The introduction of the UAV has been one of the most important factors enabling the United States to fight effective air wars with a minimum of casualties. Today, the United States has one of the largest fleets of Israeli-made UAVs. UAVs are used to identify targets and assess bomb damage without putting pilots at risk. During the Gulf War, as well as in Kosovo, Israeli-made Pioneer and Hunter UAVs were used to stop hard-to-detect targets such as missile launchers, artillery units and command and control bunkers. This information enabled commanders to target their aircraft to destroy these sites.

Python-4-Air-to-Air Missile
The Python-4 is recognized as the world' most advanced short-range air-to-air missile. Unlike other missiles of its kind, the Python can fire at targets from any angle, not just those directly in front of it. This gives it a much larger zone in which in can effectively destroy enemy aircraft.
Army/Ground

* Simon:
A system used to access buildings with locked or barricaded doors without endangering U.S. troops or the people inside.

* AN/PRC-149 Radio Set and AN/URT-140 Radio Beacon Set: Radio sets signal search and rescue satellites, which in turn beam the location of lost personnel to every receiving station within range.

* SINCGARS Tactical Communications: Employing a number of high-tech Israeli electronic components, this is the most widely used tactical radio in the U.S. Army inventory.

* Marine Amphibious Vehicle Armor Upgrade: An add-on layer of non-reactive armor tiles, this system greatly improves the survivability of U.S. Marine Corps amphibious assault vehicles.

* Mine Plows: Both the U.S. army and the Marine Corps have attached these armored plows to the front end of their tanks, enabling the lead tank in a column to push land mines aside, thus allowing safe passage for the rest of the vehicles.

* CLAMS: Used by U.S. Marine Corps tank crews in the Gulf War, this system enabled columns of tanks to navigate safely through enemy minefields.

* UZI 9mm Submachine Gun: The U.S. Secret Service currently uses this world-renowned automatic weapon.

* B300/SMAW Bunker-Busting Missile: The U.S. Marine Corps procured this missile for use in destroying deeply buried and hardened concrete-reinforced bunkers.

* Towed Assault Bridge: Both the U.S. Army and Marine Corp attached these devices to their tanks, enabling a single tank to cross obstacles up to approximately 30 feet wide without any additional assistance.

Naval
* Pioneer UAV: Used in Kosovo, this remote-controlled surveillance aircraft enables operators to see targets and conduct bomb damage assessment day or night, and through smoke, fog or dust.

* Tactical Air-Launched Decoy: The TALD, used extensively by the U.S. Navy in the Gulf war, is an unpowered glider used to confuse and thwart enemy ground and airborne radar operators, thus protecting U.S. pilots.

* Vertical Launch System (VLS): Used extensively by the U.S. Navy in the Gulf war, these launchers sent sea-to-sea, sea-to-air, and anti-submarine and Tomahawk cruise missiles from the bellies of the U.S. Navy cruisers into action against Iraqi targets.

Air Warfare
* Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System: This system allows fighter pilots to target enemy aircraft by using a display within their helmet to guide the missiles at the target they are looking at, rather than having to maneuver their aircraft into an attack position.

* Night Targeting System (NTS): The NTS is used on U.S. Marine Corps Cobra attack helicopters and allows the Cobra pilots to operate day or night, in good and bad weather. It also provides automatic targeting, easing the gunner's workload in flight.

* Helicopter Crash Survival Seats: These seats drastically reduce the effects of a helicopter crash by absorbing much of the crash's energy, resulting in fewer injuries and fatalities.

* Light Defender SEAD System: Designed to suppress enemy air defense capabilities, this highly versatile precision munition can find and destroy enemy air defenses even when they are non-transmitting or silent. It can also be retargeted in flight.

* 600 Gallon Fuel Tanks: This external fuel tank greatly increases the range of U.S. and Israeli F-16 fighter-bombers.

* Kfir Fighter Aircraft: Designed and developed in Israel in the early 1980s, this fighter was loaned to the United States for use in simulated combat missions and training.



And so the list goes on...